OP-ED

The Arab spring is likely to continue.

Writing politics nowadays is a confusing matter, given the rapid escalation of events in Yemen and those countries touched by Arab spring revolutions, particularly given the approach of the holy month of Ramadan.

The game of change is not yet done, and the ongoing military coup in Egypt is a clear example that the state of Arab revolutions is still fragile. No one should challenge it expecting an easy escape from the battle for change.

From the TV screens to the political and independent newspapers, a third party may have a better concept than the brotherhoods who reached power easily after patient waits, or the loyalists to the former ruler, loyalists who still fight to regain the power they recently lost.

It’s a conflict of interest for any party to think of his group in an age when social exclusion is no longer accepted as it was in the past. The whole concept of the Arab spring is that evil habits of past rulers are no longer as feasible for present-day leaders, though some may use the spring to satisfy their darker intentions.

Between Egypt’s transition two years ago and the current military coup in Egypt, the support of the Gulf countries been telling. Two years ago, Qatar was a strong supporter of the Egyptian revolution; today it stands against the change. It has become clear that whoever has money may apply their agendas to big communities with big populations and smaller sources of income.

While Yemen is going through a transition financed and supervised by the Gulf countries, Yemen has not yet been affected by Egypt’s second revolution in the way it was touched by the first in February, 2011. Yemen is not far away from its near neighbor at this stage, as the ousted president is busy recollecting his power to retake the presidency for his son, or at least his party.

Yemen may fall into chaos again by February 2014 if the transition does not end according to the Gulf initiative. The difference between Egypt and Yemen is the huge number of arms present among the citizenry; if 30 civilians were killed in Egypt in one day, clashes in Yemen will lose hundreds in a day.