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Optimism Turns to Fear

The movement for change in Yemen has taken many different rhythms in reaction to events on the ground, in which there has been a general trend from optimism for a smooth transition, to fear of a stalemate and collapse have set in.

Initiatives and mediators are somewhere between failure and diplomacy and are now on their third and probably last effort to get Yemen’s squabbling rivals to set aside their differences.  The EU and the US have also been taken along for the nerve-wracking diplomatic ride.

The details became much more important than the main five points in the Yemeni actors’ eyes, and they have turned into a bad excuse for wasting time, and trading accusations.

The ongoing tussles among President, his supporters, the youth, and the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) may push the GCC to give up their mediation and let the Yemenis solve their issues by themselves, in their own ways. This would likely be a disaster, which could only be avoided if the parties accept the deal for the safety of all Yemenis, and to secure their own legacies.

In the midst of all this, many scared Yemenis are counting their blessings daily, and waiting anxiously for each passing day and to pass safely. The political disagreements are mounting, and threatens to turn into a nightmare scenario along the lines of to Libya and Syria.

Having toured around the capital city of Sana’a and raised the question of who controls whom, and where the border of each party starts and ends. I have noticed that the citizens are the subjects of those elites who have manipulated their loyalty and patriotic fervor.

In 50 kilometer square, you have to identify yourself as a supporter to, variously, the republican guard, Central security, First Armored Division, tribesmen of the al-Ahmar Family, Islah Party and so many armed groups otherwise you would be considered either a terrorist or Baltaji, and likely face bodily harm.

It seems that it would be impossible to be considered a victim serving no one’s interest in these groups’ eyes. The modern revolutions proves the small value of individual who seeks his or her own rights, opinions, and aspirations.

The truth is, most of seek not political privileges for them, but good lives, but this violates politics as usual in Yemen.  Opportunities for party members and a hard time for the rest of citizens remains the general rule.

Discrimination, neglect, and poor governance are the reasons of the current rebellions movements in Yemen. The new era of revolutions may lead to change or drive people again to street to practice their favorite hobby of changing regimes and corrupted corrupt officials.

The upcoming political players should strongly consider quick and effective reforms to generate more opportunities, otherwise they will fall immediately and be labeled just as corrupt as their predecessors.