While more surprises are yet to happen in Yemen, the Houthi coup along with constitutional declaration made by them was very much expected. This has been the expectation since the political uprising of Yemen in 2011.
Most people saw the Houthi militants’ takeover coming since they kept resigned president Abd-Rabbou Mansour Hadi under house arrest on January 21st, 2015, and since they violently overtook the country on September 21st, 2014 and since they started their war against the Salafis in Damaj in 2012.
There has been a loss of vision in identifying the appropriate direction for establishing a stable future for Yemen from day one in the National Dialogue, which began in March 2013. Since then, the Houthis have worked on the side of enhancing their power at the round table meetings and political negotiations. The Houthi movement was completely blessed, approved, and authorized by the government, political parties, the GCC, and the G10 countries, including the friend of the Yemeni people Jamal Benomar who is no longer welcomed by them despite of his efforts.
With every failing attempt with the Houthis in dialogue, they were achieving progress somewhere else. They have now come to power easily with a low cost despite some resistance from some media and activists on Facebook and Twitter.
Now, there are multiple scenarios being discussed behind the scenes. The best of those options is to continue Houthi militants’ political agenda, calling for two years of a transitional government controlled by them.
The other options are not healthy for Yemen. The recent movement by Gulf country leaders does not bode well. They are seeking a way of financing tribal and civil governorates in the north and south in order to give up dealing with the capital, as part of isolating Sana’a geographically and therefore the Houthis.
If this happens, civil war will erupt and the country will break up into federal states. The threat will expand to neighboring countries, who have an interest in keeping Yemen a fragile country to prove to their own citizens that democracy is not the right choice.