Estimations saying that Yemen is moving towards a civil war have become a nightmare and much more close to reality based on visible outcomes.
Yemen has en ever-increasing number of armed militants whose decisions are not their own. Even the president of Yemen, when he escaped from house arrest last month, has found out that the country is not the same as when he was planning during the National Dialogue.
Indicators are scary and suggest the possibility of Yemen falling into civil war, according to the media reports and political analysts. These indicators are dramatically expanding day by day, since the beginning of the Yemeni youth revolution on February 11th, 2011, which ended the rule of the 33-year President.
This may be one side of the story, but the real story suggests that Yemen won’t collapse into civil war or split into two countries. The idea of civil war is fading among armed groups as well, with many of them stuck in the middle of nowhere.
There are different messages being sent to the public within the country explaining how equality between political powers is a positive matter in a situation like Yemen, which is full of weapons.
I would definitely say that the coup and the move back to dialogue are very good examples that the Yemeni people have no stake in the decisions about their fate.
Yemenis have been pushed into a battle of political parties who have agreed to fight for them. Once the parties failed to secure the basic principles of fighting, Yemenis were shocked by the ultimate results.
Let me conclude by saying that if the matters of Yemen were in the hands of Yemenis, the former president wouldn’t have given up power, and the dialogue wouldn’t have failed and been followed by different types of agreements and political arrangements. If a civil war should take place then it will come from outside Yemen, and this is just not going to happen.